IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Монголияloss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Кыргызстанwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Монголия
Phantom Assassin
Ksh · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Earthshaker
Young PH · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Leshrac
Young PH · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Кыргызстан
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 3 games
Dark Willow
Zayac · 2 games
Warlock
Max · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Max · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Kami · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
456 picks · 222 bans
Techies
451 picks · 486 bans
Batrider
394 picks · 653 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 599 bans
Morphling
332 picks · 699 bans
Timbersaw
328 picks · 767 bans
Undying
309 picks · 517 bans
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 626 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Монголия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Монголия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:12
Монголия 53%Кыргызстан 47%
The model gave 53% on Монголия — the game was taken by Кыргызстан in 38:23.
Game 2prediction missed38:18
Монголия 53%Кыргызстан 47%
The model gave 53% on Монголия — the game was taken by Кыргызстан in 34:48.
Game 3prediction missed34:22
Монголия 53%Кыргызстан 47%
The model gave 53% on Монголия — the game was taken by Кыргызстан in 56:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteМонголия · 53%
Series resultКыргызстан 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3