2022 Asian Games · BO1
result vs prediction
Монголияloss 0:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Мьянмаwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Монголия
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Phantom Assassin
Ksh · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Leshrac
Young PH · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Мьянма
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
308 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
219 picks · 287 bans
Pangolier
211 picks · 411 bans
Beastmaster
196 picks · 387 bans
Skywrath Mage
191 picks · 109 bans
Storm Spirit
188 picks · 273 bans
Dark Seer
185 picks · 353 bans
Doom
172 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Монголия
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Монголия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Монголия 73%Мьянма 27%
The model gave 73% on Монголия — the game was taken by Мьянма.
Model check result
Model favoriteМонголия · 73%
Series resultМьянма 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1