IESF World Esports Championship 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Монголияloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Турцияwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Монголия
Magnusoften banned
eleven · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Se · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Se · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Se · 1 game
Doomoften banned
eleven · 1 game
Marsoften banned
eleven · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Se · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 1 game
Турция
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
480 picks · 659 bans
Clockwerk
417 picks · 461 bans
Luna
353 picks · 446 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 525 bans
Dark Willow
328 picks · 174 bans
Dragon Knight
319 picks · 395 bans
Enchantress
317 picks · 646 bans
Batrider
296 picks · 307 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Монголия
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Монголия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:38
Монголия 59%Турция 41%
The model gave 59% on Монголия — the game was taken by Турция in 1:08:25.
Game 2prediction correct32:51
Монголия 59%Турция 41%
The model gave 59% on Монголия — the game was taken by Монголия in 1:02:21.
Game 3prediction missed38:41
Монголия 59%Турция 41%
The model gave 59% on Монголия — the game was taken by Турция in 1:15:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteМонголия · 59%
Series resultТурция 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3