Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionMmonopolywin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Arkosh Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
monopoly
No games played over 6 months.
Arkosh Gaming
Primal Beastoften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
Rubick
Dendi · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
Febby · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
qojqva · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Excalibur · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
Dendi · 2 games
Tusk
ZfreeK · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Excalibur · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
370 picks · 345 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 306 bans
Marci
269 picks · 506 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 568 bans
Undying
247 picks · 466 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 600 bans
Snapfire
219 picks · 125 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:24
monopoly 47%Arkosh Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by monopoly in 42:16.
Game 2prediction correct23:48
monopoly 47%Arkosh Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 42:54.
Game 3prediction missed46:13
monopoly 47%Arkosh Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by monopoly in 39:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 53%
Series resultmonopoly 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3