Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionMmonopolywin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HHININGAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
monopoly
No games played over 6 months.
HININGA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 245 bans
Marci
319 picks · 554 bans
Undying
284 picks · 466 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 181 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 423 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 501 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 288 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% monopoly
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% HININGA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:34
monopoly 45%HININGA 55%
The model gave 55% on HININGA — the game was taken by monopoly in 38:05.
Game 2prediction missed69:29
monopoly 45%HININGA 55%
The model gave 55% on HININGA — the game was taken by monopoly in 37:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteHININGA · 55%
Series resultmonopoly 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2