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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Monteloss 0:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MarsBet Teamwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Crystallize · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
EcNart · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
33%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 21 game
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 18 games
61%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 435 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 409 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
228 picks · 204 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
227 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 636 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 114 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
216 picks · 308 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Monte
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:29
Monte 38%MarsBet Team 62%
The model gave 62% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMoonlight
58% · 51 game47% · 96 games
LinaLukas
Lina
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
51% · 118 games54% · 150 games
Keeper of the LightW1sh-
Keeper of the Light
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
51% · 170 games51% · 126 games
MarsMr. Luck
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressEcNart
49% · 209 games45% · 238 games
Nature's ProphetBignum
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
BatriderQBFY
55% · 267 games42% · 205 games
TuskLeBronDota
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 73%
Series resultMarsBet Team 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1