?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Montewin 2:1
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rest Farmersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 11 games
27%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
22%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
13%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 8 games
38%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 7 games
43%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Crystallize · 7 games
43%

Rest Farmers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
472 picks · 209 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 588 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
397 picks · 742 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
383 picks · 533 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 153 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 687 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
342 picks · 298 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 543 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:42
Monte 13%Rest Farmers 87%
The model gave 87% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 39:23.
Game 2prediction missed36:7
Monte 13%Rest Farmers 87%
The model gave 87% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Monte in 38:14.
Game 3prediction missed33:9
Monte 13%Rest Farmers 87%
The model gave 87% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Monte in 24:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 87%
Series resultMonte 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3