RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Monteloss 1:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Rest Farmersloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monte
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 10 games
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 10 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
386 picks · 706 bans
Weaver
327 picks · 624 bans
Clockwerk
323 picks · 468 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
322 picks · 261 bans
Rubick
320 picks · 215 bans
Dark Willow
303 picks · 350 bans
Pangolier
297 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
Monte 46%Rest Farmers 54%
The model gave 54% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 31:33.
Game 2prediction missed36:47
Monte 46%Rest Farmers 54%
The model gave 54% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Monte in 56:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2