European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monteloss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Kleewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monte
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
Infernal · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 1 game
Axe
Infernal · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Crystallize · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Crystallize · 1 game
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
272 picks · 433 bans
Dark Willow
231 picks · 112 bans
Muerta
231 picks · 325 bans
Treant Protector
221 picks · 451 bans
Phoenix
220 picks · 321 bans
Kunkka
202 picks · 530 bans
Tusk
199 picks · 169 bans
Centaur Warrunner
193 picks · 261 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Team Klee
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Klee
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:33
Monte 23%Team Klee 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Team Klee in 42:40.
Game 2prediction missed25:18
Monte 23%Team Klee 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Monte in 36:25.
Game 3prediction correct16:25
Monte 23%Team Klee 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Team Klee in 32:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Klee · 77%
Series resultTeam Klee 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3