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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Moon Chasersloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Moon Chasers

No games played over 6 months.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 13 games
77%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
db- · 6 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
40%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
db- · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 5 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
479 picks · 189 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 209 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 580 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 862 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 462 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
315 picks · 293 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 596 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Moon Chasers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteMoon Chasers · 54%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed