BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs predictionMCMoon Chasersloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Moon Chasers
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Lion
Roddgeee · 11 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 8 games
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kpii · 5 games
Brewmaster
kpii · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
471 picks · 189 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
Mars
357 picks · 566 bans
Puck
343 picks · 839 bans
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 460 bans
Tiny
313 picks · 243 bans
Nyx Assassin
307 picks · 596 bans
Grimstroke
301 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:44
Moon Chasers 30%Team SMG 70%
The model gave 70% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 70%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1