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Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
cybercatswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MooN team

No games played over 6 months.

cybercats

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 29 games
52%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 19 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 18 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 16 games
69%
Visage
Visagesignature
DkFogas · 15 games
87%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fezor · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hduo · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
743 picks · 566 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
529 picks · 1066 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
464 picks · 608 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
432 picks · 773 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 199 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
365 picks · 401 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
323 picks · 372 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
322 picks · 631 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 66%
Hero pool strength52% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:20
MooN team 31%cybercats 69%
The model gave 69% on cybercats — the game was taken by MooN team in 32:17.
Game 2prediction correct21:39
MooN team 31%cybercats 69%
The model gave 69% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 34:04.
Game 3prediction correct11:32
MooN team 31%cybercats 69%
The model gave 69% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 21:55.
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 69%
Series resultcybercats 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3