Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:1series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ФФЕРЗИloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
ФЕРЗИ
Linaoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 4 games
Zeus
KingR · 3 games
Dawnbreaker
baraban · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 2 games
Rubick
KingR · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
baraban · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
baraban · 1 game
Clockwerk
KingR · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 433 bans
Mars
467 picks · 693 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 535 bans
Bane
431 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 601 bans
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 594 bans
Sand King
341 picks · 504 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:49
MooN team 82%ФЕРЗИ 18%
The model gave 82% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 58:38.
Game 2prediction missed32:36
MooN team 82%ФЕРЗИ 18%
The model gave 82% on MooN team — the game was taken by ФЕРЗИ in 41:35.
Game 3prediction correct33:20
MooN team 82%ФЕРЗИ 18%
The model gave 82% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 35:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 82%
Series resultMooN team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3