Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KBU.USloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
538 picks · 452 bans
Mars
446 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 541 bans
Bane
394 picks · 279 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 587 bans
Puck
346 picks · 805 bans
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 544 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:16
MooN team 79%KBU.US 21%
The model gave 79% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 28:32.
Game 2prediction correct45:20
MooN team 79%KBU.US 21%
The model gave 79% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 30:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 79%
Series resultMooN team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2