Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
No Sorrywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
No Sorry
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 43 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 36 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 32 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 32 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 29 games
Tiny
Worick · 28 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 25 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 439 bans
Mars
478 picks · 701 bans
Bane
439 picks · 295 bans
Dragon Knight
439 picks · 536 bans
Storm Spirit
380 picks · 603 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 604 bans
Sand King
354 picks · 520 bans
Keeper of the Light
345 picks · 757 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:33
MooN team 49%No Sorry 51%
The model gave 51% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 23:43.
Game 2prediction missed32:19
MooN team 49%No Sorry 51%
The model gave 51% on No Sorry — the game was taken by MooN team in 34:03.
Game 3prediction correct20:27
MooN team 49%No Sorry 51%
The model gave 51% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 32:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 51%
Series resultNo Sorry 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3