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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Sorrywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MooN team

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
chambi · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Limitless · 2 games
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Limitless · 2 games
100%
Marci
Marcioften banned
[T]SA · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
[T]SA · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
chambi · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
chambi · 1 game
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Koma` · 1 game
0%

No Sorry

Bane
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 34 games
68%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Worick · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 21 game
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 19 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
LastHero- · 18 games
61%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Kami · 18 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
y0nd · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
392 picks · 598 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
364 picks · 265 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
324 picks · 547 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
248 picks · 769 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
236 picks · 336 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
230 picks · 355 bans
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
221 picks · 417 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
206 picks · 733 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
MooN team 42%No Sorry 58%
The model gave 58% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 29:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaReynauld
47% · 110 games41% · 67 games
LeshracWorick
Leshrac
Lina
Linachambi
52% · 194 games51% · 52 games
LycanCloud
Lycan
Magnus
MagnusLimitless
54% · 27 games48% · 17 games
Sniperlayme
Sniper
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin[T]SA
50% · 153 games48% · 179 games
TinyArrOw
Tiny
59% · 169 games
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Bane
Game 2prediction correct29:44
MooN team 43%No Sorry 57%
The model gave 57% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperReynauld
44% · 30 games44% · 88 games
Doomlayme
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritchambi
46% · 256 games58% · 48 games
LycanCloud
Lycan
Slardar
SlardarLimitless
54% · 36 games49% · 203 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Mirana
Mirana[T]SA
55% · 160 games55% · 51 game
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
Crystal Maiden
45% · 92 games
RubickArrOw
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 64%
Series resultNo Sorry 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2