Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NVNo Visionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
Leshracoften banned
chambi · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Limitless · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
chambi · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Koma` · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Koma` · 1 game
Earthshaker
[T]SA · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Limitless · 1 game
Hoodwink
[T]SA · 1 game
No Vision
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
388 picks · 594 bans
Tiny
363 picks · 267 bans
Undying
323 picks · 545 bans
Enigma
248 picks · 762 bans
Death Prophet
238 picks · 359 bans
Pangolier
232 picks · 335 bans
Primal Beast
217 picks · 411 bans
Batrider
210 picks · 736 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% No Vision
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:23
MooN team 56%No Vision 44%
The model gave 56% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 33:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendKoma`
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Leshracchambi
SnapfirejAMES
BroodmotherLimitless
Tiny[T]SA
Game 2prediction correct36:12
MooN team 58%No Vision 42%
The model gave 58% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 27:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracKoma`
LinaChira JUNIOR
BroodmotherLimitless
TinyjAMES
Tuskchambi
Marci[T]SA
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 64%
Series resultMooN team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2