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Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Empireloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MooN team

No games played over 6 months.

Team Empire

Tiny
Tiny
xannii · 20 games
40%
Bane
Bane
633 · 19 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 19 games
37%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 14 games
21%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Shachlo · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 442 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
460 picks · 682 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 539 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
409 picks · 288 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 594 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 567 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 623 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
334 picks · 650 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% MooN team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:19
MooN team 70%Team Empire 30%
The model gave 70% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 34:20.
Game 2prediction missed8:26
MooN team 70%Team Empire 30%
The model gave 70% on MooN team — the game was taken by Team Empire in 26:07.
Game 3prediction correct27:17
MooN team 70%Team Empire 30%
The model gave 70% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 39:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 70%
Series resultMooN team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3