Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
MooN teamseries probability
60%40%
probability at match start
YNTThe prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
YNT
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
462 picks · 639 bans
Tiny
450 picks · 475 bans
Bane
447 picks · 272 bans
Sand King
418 picks · 570 bans
Dragon Knight
375 picks · 440 bans
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 623 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 553 bans
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 582 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength53% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 60%