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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 14 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 13 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 11 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 10 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
niche · 10 games
60%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 10 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Rein · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 10 games
70%

4Pirates

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 39 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 38 games
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 36 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 33 games
36%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
61%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
35%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
741 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 641 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
523 picks · 277 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1188 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 698 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
424 picks · 268 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 453 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
371 picks · 237 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Most Wanted
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total62% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:41
Most Wanted 55%4Pirates 45%
The model gave 55% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
46% · 190 games58% · 262 games
Ursazvёzd
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightniche
44% · 265 games53% · 464 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterfortniteMan
48% · 209 games59% · 141 game
Bounty Hunterariel
Bounty Hunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPonlo
47% · 132 games48% · 112 games
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Dazzle
Disruptor
DisruptorRein
43% · 183 games
Game 2prediction correct33:6
Most Wanted 60%4Pirates 40%
The model gave 60% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddon423
45% · 168 games52% · 210 games
Medusazvёzd
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
52% · 227 games47% · 352 games
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Dragon Knight
Undying
UndyingfortniteMan
47% · 96 games47% · 227 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Chen
ChenRein
51% · 137 games55% · 105 games
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
Ancient Apparition
Batrider
BatriderPonlo
54% · 266 games
Game 3prediction correct46:15
Most Wanted 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batrider423
50% · 231 game50% · 424 games
Dragon Knightzvёzd
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
49% · 209 games46% · 315 games
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
Queen of Pain
Undying
UndyingfortniteMan
48% · 83 games53% · 35 games
Spirit Breakerariel
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPonlo
52% · 118 games54% · 105 games
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Dazzle
Tusk
TuskRein
49% · 238 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 62%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3