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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eSpoiledloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 5 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
423 · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 3 games
100%
Io
Iooften banned
Rein · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
50%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 41 game
59%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 25 games
56%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 24 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 23 games
52%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 21 game
57%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
689 picks · 332 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
568 picks · 605 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
468 picks · 247 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 667 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 1128 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 247 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 362 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
338 picks · 152 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:27
Most Wanted 44%eSpoiled 56%
The model gave 56% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 43:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kez423
33% · 5 games51% · 53 games
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Troll Warlord
Pangolier
Pangolierniche
44% · 250 games52% · 105 games
Slardardualrazee
Slardar
Axe
AxefortniteMan
56% · 87 games46% · 366 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Muerta
MuertaPonlo
51% · 170 games56% · 160 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaRein
48% · 172 games
Game 2prediction missed39:7
Most Wanted 46%eSpoiled 54%
The model gave 54% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddon423
44% · 223 games56% · 186 games
Medusassnovv1
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey Kingniche
52% · 261 game55% · 307 games
Dragon Knightdualrazee
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarfortniteMan
43% · 135 games52% · 210 games
MuertaWein
Muerta
Snapfire
SnapfireRein
51% · 237 games46% · 342 games
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorPonlo
49% · 189 games
Game 3prediction missed35:6
Most Wanted 48%eSpoiled 52%
The model gave 52% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 24:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmother423
53% · 51 game53% · 210 games
Dragon Knightssnovv1
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackfortniteMan
54% · 310 games47% · 371 game
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spiritniche
50% · 268 games44% · 238 games
Snapfireasdekor_r
Snapfire
Dazzle
DazzleRein
56% · 117 games48% · 257 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorPonlo
47% · 330 games
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 58%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3