European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Most Wanted
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 7 games
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 6 games
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 5 games
Void Spirit
niche · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 4 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 13 games
Disruptoroften banned
Fernans · 12 games
Tusk
Fernans · 12 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
Warlock
flacko · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
712 picks · 345 bans
Disruptor
594 picks · 629 bans
Hoodwink
497 picks · 255 bans
Puck
411 picks · 1165 bans
Mars
404 picks · 683 bans
Tusk
404 picks · 255 bans
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 402 bans
Pugna
348 picks · 396 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 37%
Hero pool strength64% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:6
Most Wanted 62%Inner Circle 38%
The model gave 62% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez423
Nature's Prophetспортик
Storm Spiritniche
Svenyowaai
Primal BeastfortniteMan
DawnbreakerNorma
SnapfireRein
Enchantressflacko
Shadow DemonPonlo
TuskFernans
Game 2prediction correct27:3
Most Wanted 63%Inner Circle 37%
The model gave 63% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 17:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetniche
Terrorbladeyowaai
Bloodseeker423
Dragon Knightспортик
SlardarfortniteMan
MagnusNorma
RingmasterPonlo
Pugnaflacko
DazzleRein
Dark WillowFernans
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 68%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2