Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
496 Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
496 Gaming
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 7 games
Brewmaster
Red · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Red · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 4 games
Snapfire
Bombi · 3 games
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
438 picks · 982 bans
Void Spirit
419 picks · 580 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 703 bans
Mars
348 picks · 601 bans
Earth Spirit
314 picks · 308 bans
Grimstroke
298 picks · 262 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
277 picks · 401 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 18%
Hero pool strength52% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 67%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect