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BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 8 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 7 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 5 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 5 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
LionaX · 4 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
75%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 10 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 9 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 8 games
88%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 8 games
25%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
343 · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
400 picks · 636 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 221 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
398 picks · 993 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
373 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
347 picks · 191 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
305 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 216 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
278 picks · 377 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total63% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:14
Motivate.Trust Gaming 57%Nigma Galaxy SEA 43%
The model gave 57% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 29:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
39% · 86 games54% · 64 games
LeshracAlaCrity
Leshrac
Magnus
MagnusFearless
54% · 54 games44% · 56 games
UrsainYourdreaM
Ursa
Snapfire
SnapfireQ
54% · 174 games43% · 143 games
MarsMeracle
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLionaX
49% · 132 games52% · 85 games
EnchantressPoloson
Enchantress
63% · 98 games
Nyx AssassinJhocam
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct44:34
Motivate.Trust Gaming 56%Nigma Galaxy SEA 44%
The model gave 56% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 40:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautJaCkky
55% · 68 games46% · 31 game
SpectreinYourdreaM
Spectre
Invoker
InvokerFearless
54% · 36 games52% · 81 game
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
Ember Spirit
Lion
LionLionaX
44% · 95 games49% · 49 games
Dragon KnightMeracle
Dragon Knight
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQ
46% · 75 games52% · 31 game
Winter WyvernJhocam
Winter Wyvern
54% · 82 games
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 63%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2