Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RRoyale5loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Royale5
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
462 picks · 1018 bans
Void Spirit
428 picks · 619 bans
Mars
374 picks · 660 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 664 bans
Earth Spirit
338 picks · 295 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 852 bans
Rubick
263 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Royale5
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyale5 · 56%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed