DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionMMouseswin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Uunknownloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mouses
No games played over 6 months.
unknown
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
349 picks · 330 bans
Hoodwink
340 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 489 bans
Snapfire
302 picks · 264 bans
Sven
290 picks · 303 bans
Windranger
285 picks · 392 bans
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 453 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Mouses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:32
Mouses 48%unknown 52%
The model gave 52% on unknown — the game was taken by Mouses in 27:26.
Game 2prediction missed43:27
Mouses 48%unknown 52%
The model gave 52% on unknown — the game was taken by Mouses in 36:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteunknown · 52%
Series resultMouses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2