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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 12 games
42%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 11 games
55%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 10 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 20 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 19 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 15 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
565 picks · 573 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 410 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 392 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 522 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
332 picks · 201 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
328 picks · 711 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
324 picks · 606 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
310 picks · 771 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 69%
Hero pool strength59% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total61% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
MOUZ 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanBOOM
53% · 74 games50% · 109 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
52% · 239 games49% · 203 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSupream^
44% · 44 games51% · 191 game
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Dazzle
DazzleSeleri
50% · 62 games44% · 143 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Tusk
TuskThiolicor
51% · 335 games54% · 108 games
Silencerkasane
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct48:35
MOUZ 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 54:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa423
48% · 158 games45% · 270 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
56% · 363 games53% · 78 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Undying
UndyingBOOM
53% · 148 games48% · 369 games
PangolierSSS
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
49% · 217 games49% · 321 game
Batriderswedenstrong
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
50% · 402 games51% · 250 games
Shadow Shamankasane
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 61%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2