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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ALIS VENTORUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 58 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 38 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 34 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 31 game
74%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 30 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 29 games
48%

ALIS VENTORUS

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
waveformn · 4 games
75%
Luna
Luna
paw · 4 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Delight · 4 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Norma · 2 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
waveformn · 2 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Delight · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
649 picks · 691 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 453 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 422 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
438 picks · 435 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 289 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1118 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
400 picks · 869 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
398 picks · 180 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% ALIS VENTORUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:9
MOUZ 80%ALIS VENTORUS 20%
The model gave 80% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLorenof
46% · 380 games47% · 136 games
Lunapaw
Luna
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCrystallis
56% · 186 games50% · 302 games
TidehunterNorma
Tidehunter
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
53% · 265 games49% · 640 games
Puckwaveformn
Puck
Jakiro
Jakiroaik
49% · 439 games49% · 313 games
BatriderDelight
Batrider
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
52% · 121 game
Game 2prediction correct51:17
MOUZ 79%ALIS VENTORUS 21%
The model gave 79% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
50% · 223 games47% · 313 games
Terrorbladepaw
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckLorenof
51% · 307 games56% · 228 games
Sand KingPanda
Sand King
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
51% · 265 games49% · 258 games
UnderlordNorma
Underlord
Venomancer
Venomanceraik
47% · 54 games53% · 314 games
PhoenixDelight
Phoenix
Tusk
Tuskyamich
48% · 411 games48% · 147 games
Lionwaveformn
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 94%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2