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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apex Genesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 42 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 33 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 33 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 32 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
NARMAN · 28 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
52%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 27 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%

Apex Genesis

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 12 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
63%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
344 picks · 282 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
342 picks · 255 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 440 bans
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
310 picks · 349 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
308 picks · 301 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 436 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 516 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
300 picks · 484 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
MOUZ 57%Apex Genesis 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
52% · 149 games50% · 158 games
AlchemistSammyboy
Alchemist
Puck
PuckSupream^
50% · 209 games52% · 135 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
56% · 47 games40% · 134 games
Void SpiritW1sh-
Void Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenixbengan
46% · 231 game47% · 280 games
EnchantressYamSun
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
57% · 207 games52% · 136 games
MarciBignum
Marci
Game 2prediction correct45:17
MOUZ 54%Apex Genesis 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 49:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
47% · 76 games42% · 60 games
Shadow FiendSammyboy
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey KingSupream^
56% · 115 games47% · 156 games
PuckW1sh-
Puck
Doom
DoomForce
53% · 211 games46% · 173 games
MarsFayde
Mars
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
38% · 39 games51% · 211 games
EnchantressYamSun
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
58% · 298 games52% · 139 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 59%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2