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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 18 games
61%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 16 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 12 games
58%

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 790 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
461 picks · 961 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 602 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 200 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
451 picks · 347 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
445 picks · 706 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 204 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
426 picks · 730 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MOUZ 86%ASAKURA 14%
The model gave 86% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 2prediction correct
MOUZ 86%ASAKURA 14%
The model gave 86% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 86%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2