MOUZ vs AVULUS — prediction PWS2ЗК · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

MOUZloss 0:2

series probability

56%44%

probability at match start · final 0:2

AVULUSwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopteroften banned

Ulnit · 46 games

54%

Shadow Demonoften banned

bengan · 46 games

59%

Tinysignature

NARMAN · 40 games

63%

Primal Beastsignature

Force · 39 games

69%

Dark Seeroften banned

Force · 33 games

52%

Witch Doctoroften banned

bengan · 32 games

53%

Crystal Maidensignature

bengan · 30 games

60%

Svenoften banned

Ulnit · 23 games

39%

AVULUS

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

408 picks · 345 bans

52%

Hoodwink

405 picks · 446 bans

53%

Weaver

385 picks · 824 bans

54%

Tiny

377 picks · 871 bans

54%

Phoenix

356 picks · 736 bans

50%

Pangolier

338 picks · 512 bans

47%

Clockwerk

325 picks · 499 bans

56%

Ember Spirit

297 picks · 549 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)41% vs 56%

Hero pool strength54% MOUZ

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total56% MOUZ

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed16:36

MOUZ 53%AVULUS 47%

The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:58.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo