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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 75 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 53 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 44 games
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 43 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 42 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 42 games
60%

BETBOOM TEAM

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kataomi · 44 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 35 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 33 games
61%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 28 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 23 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 23 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
gpK~ · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
665 picks · 826 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
578 picks · 593 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
472 picks · 415 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
471 picks · 320 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1082 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 695 bans
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
386 picks · 998 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 625 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total66% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:16
MOUZ 40%BETBOOM TEAM 60%
The model gave 60% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
45% · 436 games55% · 297 games
UrsaKiritych
Ursa
Invoker
InvokerMidOne
48% · 151 game56% · 204 games
DoomMieRo
Doom
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
46% · 125 games57% · 463 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroSeleri
46% · 659 games50% · 262 games
Dark WillowSave-
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanyamich
48% · 459 games49% · 604 games
WarlockKataomi
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed37:27
MOUZ 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by MOUZ in 45:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMidOne
54% · 417 games47% · 179 games
SvenKiritych
Sven
Marci
MarciCrystallis
48% · 223 games54% · 378 games
BeastmastergpK~
Beastmaster
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
45% · 139 games51% · 296 games
TidehunterMieRo
Tidehunter
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanyamich
51% · 376 games50% · 632 games
WarlockKataomi
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroSeleri
52% · 862 games50% · 532 games
RingmasterSave-
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 66%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2