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FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 29 games
66%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 27 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 25 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 25 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 20 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 17 games
65%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 15 games
47%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 22 games
55%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 16 games
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 14 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 13 games
77%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 13 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Pakazs · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 224 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 629 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 712 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 361 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 574 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 159 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 772 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
334 picks · 938 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:18
MOUZ 43%BOOM Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautUlnit
46% · 44 games53% · 63 games
Troll WarlordPakazs
Troll Warlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
45% · 85 games51% · 276 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSupream^
47% · 111 games43% · 48 games
AxeSacred
Axe
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
54% · 129 games55% · 136 games
PhoenixPanda
Phoenix
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
52% · 154 games
Game 2prediction correct15:30
MOUZ 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautUlnit
42% · 63 games43% · 111 games
Ember SpiritPakazs
Ember Spirit
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSupream^
63% · 8 games45% · 60 games
LeshracDarkMago
Leshrac
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
49% · 206 games56% · 93 games
Dark SeerSacred
Dark Seer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNARMAN
67% · 70 games43% · 99 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Warlock
Warlockbengan
44% · 16 games
Game 3prediction correct35:32
MOUZ 45%BOOM Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 49:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracSupream^
52% · 87 games51% · 143 games
SvenPakazs
Sven
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightUlnit
55% · 41 game47% · 135 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerForce
54% · 29 games49% · 161 game
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
45% · 248 games49% · 32 games
Ancient ApparitionPanda
Ancient Apparition
Io
Iobengan
52% · 66 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 64%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3