Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dandelionsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 36 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 31 game
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 29 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 29 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 24 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 20 games
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 18 games
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 717 bans
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 626 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 400 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 759 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 162 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1045 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
MOUZ 73%Dandelions 27%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:51.
Game 2prediction correct30:5
MOUZ 73%Dandelions 27%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 73%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2