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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dandelionsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 41 game
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 36 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 32 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 28 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 26 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 19 games
58%

Dandelions

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 592 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 383 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
356 picks · 137 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
343 picks · 450 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
323 picks · 349 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
308 picks · 575 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 383 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
306 picks · 156 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:23
MOUZ 63%Dandelions 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Dandelions in 39:17.
Game 2prediction correct33:8
MOUZ 63%Dandelions 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:33.
Game 3prediction correct46:31
MOUZ 63%Dandelions 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 50:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 63%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3