CCT Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dandelionswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 46 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 46 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 40 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 39 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 33 games
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 32 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
Sven
Ulnit · 23 games
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
419 picks · 307 bans
Hoodwink
416 picks · 437 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
390 picks · 884 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 714 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
350 picks · 483 bans
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:19
MOUZ 66%Dandelions 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Dandelions in 23:29.
Game 2prediction correct41:16
MOUZ 66%Dandelions 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:12.
Game 3prediction missed14:34
MOUZ 66%Dandelions 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Dandelions in 27:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series resultDandelions 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3