MOUZ vs Dawn Bulls — prediction BSIЗО · Dota 2

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BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

MOUZloss 0:2

series probability

38%62%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Dawn Bullswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Ember Spiritoften banned

Lorenof · 21 game

43%

Clockwerksignature

yamich · 19 games

68%

Tusk

yamich · 16 games

38%

Pangolier

BOOM · 15 games

33%

Batrideroften banned

BOOM · 14 games

57%

Phoenix

aik · 14 games

29%

Pucksignature

MidOne · 14 games

71%

Hoodwink

yamich · 13 games

54%

Dawn Bulls

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

458 picks · 285 bans

51%

Ember Spirit

311 picks · 464 bans

56%

Mirana

298 picks · 115 bans

53%

Clockwerk

290 picks · 296 bans

50%

Dark Willow

289 picks · 123 bans

49%

Bane

280 picks · 403 bans

51%

Shadow Fiend

277 picks · 580 bans

49%

Earth Spirit

271 picks · 401 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)31% vs 63%

Hero pool strength51% Dawn Bulls

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total62% Dawn Bulls

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct14:33

MOUZ 43%Dawn Bulls 57%

The model gave 57% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls in 48:47.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo