?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DMSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 48 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 48 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 41 game
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 40 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 33 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 33 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 23 games
35%

DMS

Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 6 games
83%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 6 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 5 games
60%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
60%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 5 games
40%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
436 picks · 382 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
395 picks · 448 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
383 picks · 821 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
371 picks · 845 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 527 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
359 picks · 746 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 508 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
338 picks · 255 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
MOUZ 53%DMS 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
47% · 241 game51% · 99 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Alchemist
AlchemistForce
52% · 91 game45% · 61 game
Snipermellojul
Sniper
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
50% · 283 games56% · 298 games
BatriderDaxak
Batrider
Abaddon
Abaddonbengan
46% · 33 games53% · 287 games
Shadow Demonaik
Shadow Demon
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNARMAN
48% · 250 games50% · 153 games
Tuskprblms
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct36:13
MOUZ 54%DMS 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
41% · 75 games64% · 63 games
SlarkShigetsu
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
51% · 146 games53% · 162 games
WindrangerDaxak
Windranger
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
46% · 100 games53% · 45 games
Earth Spiritmellojul
Earth Spirit
Techies
TechiesNARMAN
50% · 134 games49% · 219 games
Batrideraik
Batrider
Jakiro
Jakirobengan
42% · 77 games52% · 43 games
Skywrath Mageprblms
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 58%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2