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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DMSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 30 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 27 games
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
Force · 26 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 25 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 23 games
30%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
NARMAN · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 22 games
55%

DMS

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daxak · 19 games
47%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
rincyq · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
prblms · 13 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 12 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hduo · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
prblms · 10 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
473 picks · 650 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
406 picks · 455 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 513 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
347 picks · 432 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
318 picks · 171 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 638 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 385 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
287 picks · 299 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total74% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
MOUZ 74%DMS 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by DMS in 49:11.
Game 2prediction missed34:37
MOUZ 62%DMS 38%
The model gave 62% on MOUZ — the game was taken by DMS in 1:03:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
44% · 277 games52% · 133 games
Nature's ProphetShigetsu
Nature's Prophet
Invoker
InvokerSupream^
49% · 227 games52% · 351 game
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Dazzle
DazzleForce
45% · 40 games56% · 124 games
Sand Kingemptiness
Sand King
Pugna
PugnaTobi
51% · 160 games55% · 259 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskImmersion
43% · 361 game52% · 198 games
Lionprblms
Lion
Game 3prediction missed17:28
MOUZ 62%DMS 38%
The model gave 62% on MOUZ — the game was taken by DMS in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
44% · 287 games50% · 416 games
Dragon KnightShigetsu
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
43% · 366 games52% · 200 games
Bristlebackemptiness
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterForce
51% · 185 games56% · 317 games
Storm Spiritmellojul
Storm Spirit
Tusk
TuskImmersion
49% · 287 games54% · 55 games
LichHduo
Lich
Enchantress
EnchantressTobi
47% · 289 games55% · 426 games
Shadow Demonprblms
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 74%
Series resultDMS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3