ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDrago_Kingsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Witch Doctor
bengan · 32 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 27 games
Dark Seer
Force · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 24 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 23 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
NARMAN · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
Drago_Kings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
428 picks · 545 bans
Clockwerk
375 picks · 373 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 438 bans
Luna
314 picks · 371 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 571 bans
Dark Willow
277 picks · 146 bans
Dragon Knight
264 picks · 339 bans
Batrider
257 picks · 244 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MOUZ 76%Drago_Kings 24%
The model gave 76% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 2prediction correct
MOUZ 76%Drago_Kings 24%
The model gave 76% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 76%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2