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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dragon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 25 games
28%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 22 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 20 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
35%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 25 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 21 game
48%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 18 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
lil pleb · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
488 picks · 649 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
451 picks · 519 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 566 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
374 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
351 picks · 385 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
331 picks · 252 bans
51%
Invoker
Invoker
325 picks · 903 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
320 picks · 419 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:21
MOUZ 57%Dragon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreLowskill
57% · 19 games43% · 197 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
49% · 259 games49% · 41 game
Drow Rangerlil pleb
Drow Ranger
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
51% · 162 games52% · 160 games
Earth SpiritPanda
Earth Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaTobi
54% · 106 games47% · 227 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
47% · 170 games54% · 91 game
Ogre MagiMary_y
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed32:43
MOUZ 54%Dragon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 50:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingSupream^
47% · 122 games48% · 65 games
Queen of PainPanda
Queen of Pain
Razor
RazorLowskill
37% · 102 games51% · 104 games
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFly
48% · 48 games56% · 141 game
Monkey Kinglil pleb
Monkey King
Enigma
EnigmaTobi
55% · 80 games58% · 86 games
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
Nyx Assassin
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
45% · 85 games59% · 41 game
LichMary_y
Lich
Game 3prediction correct21:7
MOUZ 56%Dragon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLowskill
47% · 110 games46% · 164 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Sniper
SniperSupream^
47% · 62 games57% · 29 games
HuskarPanda
Huskar
Tiny
TinyTobi
53% · 205 games54% · 154 games
Weaverlil pleb
Weaver
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
44% · 81 game51% · 93 games
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
Nyx Assassin
Chen
ChenFly
52% · 75 games54% · 93 games
Elder TitanMary_y
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3