DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Gyrocoptersignature
bengan · 11 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 9 games
Leshracsignature
Supream^ · 8 games
Sven
Ulnit · 8 games
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 7 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 7 games
Earthshakeroften banned
NARMAN · 6 games
Enigmasignature
Force · 6 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
407 picks · 656 bans
Mars
387 picks · 619 bans
Lion
386 picks · 358 bans
Techies
382 picks · 311 bans
Batrider
366 picks · 798 bans
Tiny
365 picks · 418 bans
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 356 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 564 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total75% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:56
MOUZ 25%Entity 75%
The model gave 75% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 46:14.
Game 2prediction correct22:45
MOUZ 25%Entity 75%
The model gave 75% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 31:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 75%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2