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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
GamerLegionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 72 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 49 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 46 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 37 games
68%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 37 games
73%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 19 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 15 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 15 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Bignum · 12 games
58%
Viper
Viperoften banned
YamSun · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
639 picks · 992 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 443 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
463 picks · 637 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
444 picks · 1036 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 482 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
442 picks · 269 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 517 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 576 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:13
MOUZ 53%GamerLegion 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 45:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
51% · 269 games49% · 224 games
Shadow FiendYamSun
Shadow Fiend
Clinkz
ClinkzCrystallis
54% · 74 games45% · 232 games
Queen of PainRCY
Queen of Pain
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
46% · 97 games52% · 80 games
LargoFayde
Largo
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
46% · 298 games51% · 149 games
PhoenixSpeeed
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoryamich
64% · 78 games43% · 131 game
ClockwerkBignum
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed10:24
MOUZ 55%GamerLegion 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzCrystallis
60% · 118 games48% · 174 games
Shadow FiendYamSun
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMidOne
48% · 426 games46% · 195 games
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
Centaur Warrunner
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
55% · 134 games40% · 252 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
54% · 204 games41% · 120 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoryamich
63% · 100 games45% · 241 game
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2