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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Heroicloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 52 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 38 games
61%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 31 game
68%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 30 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 29 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 29 games
72%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 27 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
68%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 24 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 19 games
63%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
775 picks · 354 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 593 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
563 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
468 picks · 539 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
465 picks · 283 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
464 picks · 272 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
452 picks · 738 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
432 picks · 1121 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total78% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:19
MOUZ 66%Heroic 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
54% · 220 games57% · 232 games
AbaddonYuma
Abaddon
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMidOne
45% · 206 games50% · 254 games
PuckWisper
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
48% · 231 game45% · 145 games
Primal BeastDavai
Primal Beast
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
51% · 100 games51% · 326 games
SnapfireKJ
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
51% · 244 games46% · 44 games
Spirit BreakerScofield
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 78%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1