?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Heroicloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 66 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 53 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 47 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 35 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 34 games
65%

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 30 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 30 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 21 game
52%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 20 games
80%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 19 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
611 picks · 949 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 437 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 643 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 639 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
445 picks · 965 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 661 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 542 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
389 picks · 240 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total63% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:45
MOUZ 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 50:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
50% · 219 games45% · 301 game
BeastmasterTaiLung
Beastmaster
Clinkz
ClinkzCrystallis
58% · 114 games52% · 236 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
50% · 323 games49% · 228 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Tiny
Tinyyamich
51% · 532 games45% · 388 games
WarlockKJ
Warlock
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
49% · 225 games52% · 260 games
Shadow DemonThiolicor
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 63%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1