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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 65 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 44 games
66%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 41 game
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 40 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 37 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 36 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 34 games
56%

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Thiolicor · 37 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 31 game
39%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 23 games
74%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 23 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 21 game
43%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
68%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
664 picks · 773 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
546 picks · 519 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 413 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
455 picks · 312 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1118 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 801 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
395 picks · 319 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 598 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total62% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:13
MOUZ 43%Heroic 57%
The model gave 57% on Heroic — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
52% · 172 games57% · 82 games
HuskarTaiLung
Huskar
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
41% · 165 games49% · 161 game
MuertaYuma
Muerta
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMidOne
50% · 22 games54% · 102 games
WeaverWisper
Weaver
Phoenix
Phoenixaik
50% · 143 games49% · 72 games
RubickThiolicor
Rubick
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
49% · 69 games50% · 154 games
MarciKJ
Marci
Game 2prediction missed45:23
MOUZ 46%Heroic 54%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
46% · 86 games56% · 149 games
MedusaYuma
Medusa
Doom
DoomBOOM
51% · 161 game53% · 108 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Kez
KezMidOne
48% · 63 games48% · 296 games
PangolierWisper
Pangolier
Tusk
Tuskyamich
50% · 390 games49% · 95 games
RubickThiolicor
Rubick
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkaik
51% · 307 games47% · 359 games
DisruptorKJ
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 62%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2