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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pibbles Corploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 22 games
41%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolier
BOOM · 16 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 14 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yamich · 14 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 14 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
MidOne · 14 games
71%

Pibbles Corp

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ryu · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 1 game
0%
Largo
Largooften banned
Ryu · 1 game
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Lumière · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Alone · 1 game
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Alone · 1 game
0%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Mjz · 1 game
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
482 picks · 291 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
339 picks · 142 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
333 picks · 155 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 463 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 440 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
273 picks · 249 bans
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
270 picks · 199 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:9
MOUZ 79%Pibbles Corp 21%
The model gave 79% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Sven423
50% · 115 games48% · 278 games
Shadow FiendLumière
Shadow Fiend
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
47% · 137 games56% · 175 games
Keeper of the LightAlone
Keeper of the Light
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
49% · 466 games54% · 377 games
Centaur WarrunnerRyu
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaMoOz
53% · 200 games55% · 135 games
LionMjz
Lion
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
43% · 285 games48% · 238 games
ClockwerkPrada
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct30:7
MOUZ 79%Pibbles Corp 21%
The model gave 79% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 21:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet423
43% · 110 games50% · 172 games
TerrorbladeLumière
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
47% · 154 games50% · 165 games
Monkey KingAlone
Monkey King
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSupream^
57% · 3 games54% · 103 games
Dark SeerRyu
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
54% · 424 games60% · 63 games
Spirit BreakerMjz
Spirit Breaker
Dazzle
DazzleMoOz
46% · 84 games49% · 272 games
DisruptorPrada
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 93%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2