The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Tusk
yamich · 30 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallis · 26 games
Brewmasteroften banned
BOOM · 22 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MidOne · 18 games
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 25 games
Tiny
Jing · 24 games
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
Warlock
Se · 22 games
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
Jakiro
Se · 17 games
Slardaroften banned
laise · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
640 picks · 445 bans
Rubick
597 picks · 337 bans
Phoenix
456 picks · 535 bans
Pangolier
454 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
404 picks · 362 bans
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 393 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 505 bans
Puck
329 picks · 996 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:10
MOUZ 66%Inner Circle 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyCrystallis
Terrorblade423
Storm SpiritMidOne
Axelaise
LycanBOOM
ViperStojkov
Keeper of the Lightyamich
HoodwinkFernans
LargoPanto
Ancient ApparitionSe
Game 2prediction correct28:5
MOUZ 66%Inner Circle 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarCrystallis
Kez423
Night StalkerMidOne
PuckStojkov
BrewmasterBOOM
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
Miranayamich
HoodwinkFernans
ClockwerkPanto
PhoenixSe
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 80%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2