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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustBetterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 36 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 31 game
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 31 game
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 24 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 22 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 19 games
63%

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Astral · 6 games
33%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 6 games
17%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 5 games
20%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Focus · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 226 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 749 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 631 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
433 picks · 416 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
402 picks · 742 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
383 picks · 168 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
354 picks · 1021 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 725 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 41%
Hero pool strength62% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total86% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:14
MOUZ 72%JustBetter 28%
The model gave 72% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
45% · 117 games50% · 61 game
Chaos KnightSkyLark
Chaos Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixSupream^
38% · 135 games62% · 75 games
Queen of PainThuG
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarSabeRLight-
56% · 62 games56% · 220 games
LifestealerFocus
Lifestealer
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
49% · 139 games47% · 9 games
Witch DoctorSsaSpartan
Witch Doctor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
53% · 112 games46% · 200 games
Dark WillowAstral
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct20:16
MOUZ 72%JustBetter 28%
The model gave 72% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
48% · 101 game49% · 279 games
PuckThuG
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
53% · 148 games51% · 29 games
Shadow FiendFocus
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSupream^
50% · 121 game49% · 65 games
Night StalkerSkyLark
Night Stalker
Enchantress
Enchantressbengan
48% · 111 games54% · 119 games
Skywrath MageAstral
Skywrath Mage
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
45% · 155 games53% · 144 games
Treant ProtectorSsaSpartan
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 86%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2