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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Klim Sani4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 20 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 15 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 14 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
MidOne · 14 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yamich · 13 games
54%

Klim Sani4

Windranger
Windrangersignature
swedenstrong · 11 games
73%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Rein · 10 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 9 games
89%
Lycan
Lycansignature
mangekyou · 8 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
swedenstrong · 7 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
mangekyou · 6 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
477 picks · 312 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 499 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
309 picks · 378 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
307 picks · 431 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
293 picks · 109 bans
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
293 picks · 621 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
284 picks · 119 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
274 picks · 290 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 75%
Hero pool strength64% Klim Sani4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Klim Sani4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MOUZ 38%Klim Sani4 62%
The model gave 62% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4.
Game 2prediction missed45:14
MOUZ 39%Klim Sani4 61%
The model gave 61% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by MOUZ in 45:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenDarkLord^
49% · 84 games52% · 151 game
Dark Seermangekyou
Dark Seer
Doom
DoomBOOM
50% · 187 games54% · 104 games
Lifestealer423
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
52% · 335 games54% · 298 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
43% · 196 games47% · 249 games
BaneRein
Bane
Ringmaster
RingmasterMoOz
48% · 250 games52% · 250 games
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct15:19
MOUZ 39%Klim Sani4 61%
The model gave 61% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 1:18:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyDarkLord^
42% · 421 game53% · 236 games
Timbersawmangekyou
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
41% · 270 games55% · 266 games
Kez423
Kez
Lina
LinaSupream^
41% · 81 game53% · 177 games
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Earth Spirit
Ringmaster
RingmasterMoOz
47% · 255 games66% · 190 games
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
Keeper of the Light
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
49% · 182 games51% · 340 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteKlim Sani4 · 62%
Series resultKlim Sani4 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3